The article by Mr. Dinh Hong Ky was published in the “Viewpoint” section of VnExpress on March 4, 2025.
Takahashi Hisashi is a renowned landscape and urban architect with nearly 40 years of experience in Japan. Over the past decade, he has also been closely involved in various projects in Ho Chi Minh City and southern provinces of Vietnam.
In a meeting with me earlier this year, he noted that there are growing signs suggesting Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi are edging toward urban decay.
Urban decay (also known as urban decline) refers to the process in which a city area gradually loses vitality, experiences economic downturn, population decline or aging, infrastructure deterioration, environmental pollution, and rising social issues.
Vietnam’s two largest cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, currently exhibit 60–70% of the indicators classified globally as urban decay, including overloaded and degraded infrastructure, environmental pollution, local economic stagnation, increased social problems, and population decline or migration. Without sustainable development strategies, these cities could face full-scale urban decline within the next 10–20 years—similar to what happened in Detroit (USA), Liverpool (UK), Mexico City, and Jakarta (Indonesia).
On February 28, during the first meeting of the new Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee concerning the socio-economic situation in February, an alarming issue was raised: the rate of business closures and bankruptcies in the city is sharply rising. Since the beginning of 2025, the number of newly established businesses has decreased by over 37% in quantity and nearly 48% in registered capital compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the number of businesses suspending operations has increased by over 12%. This long-standing trend highlights how small enterprises struggle to survive, while large corporations relocate to neighboring provinces like Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Ba Ria–Vung Tau. This mirrors the early signs of urban decay seen in cities like Detroit and Liverpool.
Overloaded traffic infrastructure, deteriorating roads, inefficient drainage systems, and a lack of public spaces and greenery are major barriers to the sustainable development of Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. These issues evoke concerns of a scenario similar to Jakarta, one of the fastest-sinking cities in the world due to poor urban planning and weak drainage systems. The flooding crisis and severe traffic congestion prompted the Indonesian government to relocate the capital.
In Vietnam, both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City face serious air pollution problems. Hanoi frequently ranks among cities with the highest PM2.5 levels, while Ho Chi Minh City’s air quality is also often at hazardous levels. The average green space per capita is significantly below both national standards and international recommendations—about 0.55 m²/person in Ho Chi Minh City and 2.06 m²/person in Hanoi, far lower than the Vietnamese standard of 12 m²/person or the UN recommendation of at least 10 m²/person, let alone modern global cities that average 20–25 m²/person.
Mexico City once faced similar issues, suffering from severe pollution due to high population density, vehicle numbers, and lack of greenery—factors that accelerated its urban decline. These similarities warn that without decisive actions, environmental issues can greatly hasten decline.
There is also a widening gap between new urban areas and older residential zones in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. While upscale developments like Phu My Hung and Thu Thiem (HCMC) or Tay Ho Tay and My Dinh (Hanoi) receive substantial investment, deteriorating apartment blocks and old collective housing remain largely neglected with no effective renovation plan.
Additionally, rapid population growth is straining urban infrastructure. Every year, hundreds of thousands of migrants move to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in search of work, overwhelming transport, healthcare, and education systems. Simultaneously, a low birth rate and growing informal labor sector are distorting demographic structures—similar to the challenges now seen in San Francisco, where a reverse migration trend is occurring. This offers a critical lesson for Vietnamese cities.
To avoid urban decay, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City need long-term, effective strategies: heavy investment in transportation, drainage, and green spaces; strong pollution control by reducing private vehicles and developing public transit; balanced real estate development with more social housing to ensure livable conditions; and controlled, well-planned urban expansion to avoid overloading infrastructure.
Looking at lessons from Detroit, Liverpool, Mexico City, San Francisco, and Jakarta, it is clear that urban decay is not exclusive to developed countries. It is a real risk for major Vietnamese cities. Without timely interventions, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City could face similar problems, seriously impacting the quality of life for millions.
However, with the right strategies and reform-minded leadership, both cities still have the opportunity to transform into modern, livable, and sustainable urban centers in the region.
