Rewrite Business Strategy in the Age of Uncertainty

The year 2025 witnesses waves never seen before in modern business history. The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, wars, sanctions, AI, and climate change… have forced Vietnamese enterprises to rewrite their core strategies. This is no longer the era of “long-term master plans,” but the age of the “flexible compass”—constantly updating, adapting, and recreating. Enterprises that cannot change will be left behind in a world of BANI: Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible. Meanwhile, the older framework of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) is still valid in explaining the chaos after the Cold War, but BANI now more vividly reflects today’s fragility and uncertainty.

Over the past 3-5 years, a succession of global shocks has strongly affected businesses worldwide:

• Covid-19 pandemic: disrupted global supply chains. McKinsey estimates that up to 70% of global supply chains faced disruptions between 2020–2022, forcing Vietnamese enterprises in apparel, footwear, and leather to halt production due to transport blockages.

• Russia–Ukraine war: severely impacted energy and food supplies. Natural gas prices in Europe surged fivefold, directly raising costs and inflation in Vietnam—an import-dependent economy.

• “America First” policy: under President Trump, trade wars and tariffs on Chinese goods also indirectly affected Vietnam. McKinsey (2025) notes that 65% of supply chains involving China had to restructure. Vietnamese enterprises dependent on cheap raw materials faced risks from decoupling.

• Decoupling: the separation of major economies (like the US) from China and other regions created geopolitical risks.

• Israel–Iran conflicts: escalated fighting in the Middle East pushed global logistics costs up. Freight charges increased by 200–400%. By June 2024, Vietnamese export enterprises reported container shipping costs rising to $6,200 per TEU, tripling from the previous $2,000.

• Global warming and climate events: continue to damage supply chains. Many businesses faced raw material shortages or were forced to change supply models and invest in AI.

• China’s slowdown: the world’s second-largest economy has seen continuous slowdowns, dragging down the entire East Asian supply chain. Western nations accelerate the “China+1” strategy, forcing supply chains to shift.

• The Red Sea crisis: worsened maritime risks. The Swiss Re Institute estimates that the world economy lost $2.318 trillion in 2024, of which 57% stemmed from insured risks. Vietnam’s agriculture sector alone lost 1.9% of GDP from such unpredictable events.

• Financial market turbulence: global stock and bond volatility. The World Economic Forum (WEF) warned that systemic risks could cause chain reactions leading to recession and economic crises.

According to WEF, McKinsey, IMF, and UNCTAD, risks facing businesses today include: geopolitical shocks, economic recessions, climate disasters, supply chain fragmentation. UNCTAD forecasts global economic growth in 2025 at just 2.3%, close to recession.

In this context, business strategy is no longer about drafting 5–10 year “blueprints.” What is needed is a “flexible compass” to constantly adapt. This requires businesses to fundamentally transform their strategic mindset.

Previously, financial planning was done annually. Today, businesses need “rolling forecasts” updated quarterly, monthly, or even weekly.

Rolling Forecast updates plans according to actual conditions: container freight rates between Asia–Europe rose sixfold in 2021; shipping prices to the US West Coast soared to $120/CBM (2020–2022). With Rolling Forecast, enterprises can react quickly, adjust revenue forecasts, and maintain profits.

At Việt Nam, Vinamilk and others used Rolling Forecast to adjust raw material import costs when global prices fluctuated. FPT Retail adopted this model for post-Covid inventory management.

A piece of land may be very expensive or worthless depending on “global demand.” Enterprises need “scenario planning”: best, moderate, bad, very bad.

When the Biển Đông (South China Sea) crisis erupted, many firms practiced rerouting logistics, minimizing losses.

In Việt Nam, enterprises are testing models for the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The Ho Chi Minh City Green Economy Association (HBA) is helping firms cut 20% of emissions to lower risks of EU import sanctions.

Agility is no longer a term for the tech world alone. Enterprises now adopt “agile” to quickly test, adjust, and replicate strategies.

For example, retail chains can test 5 new store models in HCM City, then scale up based on results.

Tiki demonstrates agility with TikiNOW, Tiki Ads, Tiki Global, adjusting according to demand. In 2025, AI enhances agile applications: predicting trends, managing inventory, investing in products with faster turnover.

OKR (Objectives and Key Results), pioneered by Intel and Google, is spreading in Việt Nam. Techcombank is applying it across the entire bank. Each division, from IT to operations, breaks strategy into OKRs, connecting individual goals with corporate strategy.

Despite real estate downturns, Techcombank still maintained profit growth of 20% between 2022–2024, partly thanks to the OKR system.

Redefining business models through ecosystem chains

Strategy today is not just an “organizational chart” but an ecosystem model. Many enterprises are moving from “traditional value chains” to “ecosystem value chains,” expanding value through cross-sector connections.

The leader’s role is to act as a “flexible architect of strategy”: designing agile models, connecting resources, and inspiring teams.

The era of long-term strategic plans is over. This is the age of the flexible compass—always updated, adaptive, and creative.

Today’s entrepreneurs must become strategic architects: building flexible models, connecting resources, and inspiring teams. Only then can businesses survive in a world of constant shocks and turbulence.

Chairman of Secoin Corporation

Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Construction & Building Materials Association (SACA)

Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Green Business Association (HGBA)

Vice Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association (HUBA).