Article by Mr. Đinh Hồng Kỳ, published on VnExpress on April 1, 2026.
Robert Kiyosaki—author of the famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad—first came to Vietnam in 1966 as a Marine Corps pilot. Nearly 60 years later, he returned—not to fight, but to observe an economy that he believes is operating more effectively than his own country.
Robert sees Vietnam as a nation targeting 10% annual growth through 2030; a country building highways, airports, ports, and factories; a country diligently producing and exporting.
But the world in which Vietnam is rising is no longer the old world. The year 2026 began with geopolitical turbulence. The escalation of conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran since late February is one example.
War is often viewed through maps—where bombs fall, where attacks occur, where tensions escalate. But in economic terms, war does not follow battle maps. It travels through oil pipelines, gas shipments, fertilizer prices, and freight bills—eventually reaching the wallets of every household.
Richard Wolff, an American economist, emphasized this in an interview with Al Jazeera on March 29: “Today’s world is a unified economy.” In such a system, no war is truly far away.
For Vietnam, this reality is becoming increasingly clear. A strike on energy infrastructure in Qatar disrupted 17% of LNG capacity. The Strait of Hormuz tightened. Brent crude surged to around $115 per barrel, rising nearly 60% in just one month. These shocks do not remain in the Middle East—they quickly ripple into economies like Vietnam’s, even within the second quarter, through energy costs, transportation, and input supply chains.
For Vietnam, this is not just an energy shock.
It is a “double shock,” even a “triple-layered shock.”
First, rising oil prices, freight costs, and raw materials drive up production and logistics expenses, fueling inflationary pressure. Second, the U.S. has launched trade investigations under Section 301 into Vietnam and several other countries, raising the risk of new tariffs at a time when businesses are already under cost pressure. Third, a stronger U.S. dollar is causing exchange rate volatility, making capital costs more sensitive.
These three shocks are occurring simultaneously—a rare situation since the 2008 financial crisis—and are placing Vietnam’s growth model under a real stress test.
As energy becomes more expensive, it is not only heavy industries that feel the strain. Every textile, wood, electronics, chemical, or construction materials factory faces rising costs. Agriculture is no exception. As fuel prices increase, so do fertilizer costs, raising input expenses for farmers precisely when they need capital and materials the most.
And as Wolff warned, in shocks like these, the most affected are always workers and low-income groups. In Vietnam, that means factory workers, farmers, and families without sufficient assets to buffer prolonged price increases.
What is worth noting is that war does not only push prices upward—it also exposes the vulnerabilities of an economy. Vietnam has achieved rapid growth, strong exports, and attracted FDI, but for that very reason, it is more sensitive to external shocks.
In this context, what Robert Kiyosaki observed in Vietnam—an economy that builds, produces, and exports—is no longer just an advantage; it has become a necessity.
But that necessity is becoming harder to fulfill.
The growth model based on exports, FDI, and competitive costs has taken Vietnam far. However, as the world enters an era of fragmentation—where trade is increasingly tied to geopolitics and supply chains are no longer purely economic—cost advantages alone are no longer sufficient to ensure long-term growth.
The real question is not whether Vietnam will continue to grow, but how it will grow.
The world is entering a phase where cost advantages are gradually уступed to systemic capabilities. Successful economies will be those with efficient infrastructure, flexible institutions, competitive enterprises, and continuous innovation capacity. This requires Vietnam to shift from an opportunity-driven growth model to a capability-driven one.
Priority should be given to regional connectivity infrastructure as a strategic foundation—not only to ease congestion but also to reduce costs and improve overall economic efficiency. At the same time, bold experimentation with new mechanisms in finance, technology, and data is essential, as a financial center cannot operate under outdated management thinking. On that foundation, building a truly effective innovation ecosystem—closely tied to business and economic needs—becomes urgent, rather than relying on fragmented support programs.
In a world where geopolitical risks increasingly “domesticate” into everyday economic life, Vietnam cannot afford to react passively. A more proactive approach is needed, built on three clear pillars: transparency in cost structures and energy pricing to enable forecasting; diversification of supply sources to reduce dependency on volatile markets; and the development of market-based stabilization mechanisms rather than short-term administrative interventions.
This crisis is a harsh but useful reminder. Growth alone is not enough. Resilience is what determines how far an economy can go.
Ordinary people do not directly participate in global conflicts, yet they bear the cost of their consequences. Therefore, effective macroeconomic risk management is not only a matter for governments—it directly shapes the stability of every household and the resilience of the entire economy.
What makes war frightening is not always the sound of bombs. Sometimes, it is the silence in factories, the higher price of fertilizer in the fields, and the less nutritious meals under each family’s roof.
Dinh Hong Ky
